The 2024 presidential election saw remarkably high voter turnout, rivaling the historic levels of 2020 and challenging the traditional political notion that high turnout favors Democrats. This article analyzes the voter turnout in 2024 compared to 2020, examining the factors contributing to this surge and its potential implications.
Record-Breaking Turnout in a Polarized Nation
According to Associated Press data, over 153 million votes were cast in the 2024 presidential race between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris. This figure approaches the 158 million votes cast in the 2020 election, the highest in over a century. While final tallies are still being completed in some states, the 2024 turnout underscores a highly engaged electorate.
Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs delivers the State of the State address, highlighting the political divisions in a state with near-record turnout in 2024.
Challenging Conventional Wisdom
Trump’s victory, both in the Electoral College and the popular vote, defies the long-held belief that high turnout benefits Democrats. Political scientist Eitan Hersh notes, “Trump is great for voter turnout in both parties.” This observation reflects a shift in the political landscape, where high turnout no longer guarantees a Democratic victory.
The Trump Effect on Voter Mobilization
Trump’s influence on voter turnout is undeniable. His claims of a rigged election in 2020, despite being disproven, fueled a surge in voter engagement on both sides of the political spectrum. While he initially warned that expanded mail-in voting would hurt Republicans, his supporters embraced early voting in 2024, contributing to the record numbers.
Former President Joe Biden addresses foreign policy issues, acknowledging the complex global landscape inherited by the incoming administration.
Swing States and Turnout Dynamics
Turnout in the seven key swing states exceeded the national average, highlighting their crucial role in deciding the election. These states, which included Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, all saw Trump victories with turnout surpassing 2020 levels.
The Impact of Early and Mail-in Voting
A significant portion of the 2024 vote, over half, was cast before Election Day, reflecting the increasing popularity of early and mail-in voting options. Republicans, who had previously been skeptical of these methods, actively encouraged their use in this election cycle, leading to a substantial increase in pre-Election Day voting among their base.
West Virginia Governor Patrick Morrisey takes office, symbolizing the conservative shift in a state where turnout often reflects national trends.
Get-Out-the-Vote Efforts and Shifting Demographics
Both parties invested heavily in get-out-the-vote efforts, targeting infrequent voters and specific demographic groups. Conservative groups, inspired by Stacey Abrams’ success in mobilizing Black voters in Georgia, focused on engaging low-propensity conservative voters, ultimately contributing to Trump’s victory.
Conclusion: A New Era of High Turnout?
The 2024 election signifies a potential shift in the relationship between turnout and electoral outcomes. The high turnout, driven by intense political polarization and effective mobilization strategies, defied traditional predictions. While the long-term implications remain to be seen, 2024 demonstrated that high turnout elections are no longer synonymous with Democratic victories. The ability to mobilize specific voter segments and adapt to evolving voting patterns will likely determine the future of American elections.
