The 2024 presidential election witnessed remarkably high voter participation, nearly matching the historic levels of the 2020 election. This high turnout defied conventional political wisdom, which traditionally suggested that Republican candidates face challenges in elections with broad voter participation.
Data from the Associated Press indicated that over 153 million votes were cast in the election between Republican Donald Trump, the president-elect, and Democrat Kamala Harris, the vice president. With ongoing ballot counting in states like California, the total vote count is expected to approach the 158 million votes recorded in the 2020 presidential election. The 2020 election had the highest voter turnout since women gained the right to vote over a century ago.
“Trump is great for voter turnout in both parties,” noted Eitan Hersh, a political scientist from Tufts University, highlighting the former president’s significant impact on voter engagement across the political spectrum.
Trump’s victory in both the Electoral College and the popular vote – where he currently leads Harris by almost 2.5 million votes nationwide – further challenges the long-held political notion that high voter turnout primarily benefits Democratic candidates.
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Image alt text: Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs delivers State of the State address in Phoenix, January 2025, highlighting state political landscape.
This high turnout outcome contrasts sharply with past Republican rhetoric. In 2020, Trump himself warned that expanding mail-in voting, a measure often associated with increased voter turnout, would result in a situation where “you’d never have a Republican elected in this country again.” This statement came as Trump initiated conspiracy theories regarding mail-in voting during the coronavirus pandemic, later falsely attributing his 2020 election loss to widespread voter fraud.
These claims spurred a wave of new voting regulations. Republican-controlled states implemented stricter voting rules and reduced access to various voting methods, while Democratic-led states expanded mail-in voting options. The debate over voter turnout became a central point of political contention, with accusations of voter suppression from Democrats and claims of cheating from Republicans.
“It’s such an embarrassing story for proponents on both sides, because it’s so obviously wrong,” Hersh commented on the overstated impact of such voting law changes.
Despite the ongoing partisan battles over election administration, Trump’s victory amidst high voter turnout may de-escalate the intensity of this conflict.
“Now I think, you just won the popular vote, I think it’ll quiet down,” suggested Patrick Ruffini, a Republican data analyst and pollster. Ruffini has consistently argued that the Republican party can succeed in high-turnout elections, even with a diverse electorate.
Experts also pointed out that voter turnout in the seven key swing states was even higher than the national average, emphasizing the critical role of these states in the election outcome.
“This was a campaign in seven states much more so than previous elections have felt like,” Ruffini explained, indicating a more geographically concentrated campaign strategy.
While the national vote shifted significantly from 2020, when Democrat Joe Biden won the popular vote by 7 million, the results in swing states were much closer. The trend in voter turnout also varied geographically. Non-competitive states like Illinois and Ohio experienced a decrease in voter turnout compared to 2020, with Illinois recording over 500,000 fewer votes and Ohio more than 300,000 less.
Conversely, battleground states including Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin all saw increased voter turnout compared to 2020. Arizona’s turnout remained nearly the same as four years prior, as the state continued its vote count.
Image alt text: President Joe Biden at State Department, Washington D.C., January 2025, reflecting on foreign policy challenges.
Interestingly, Kamala Harris matched or exceeded Biden’s 2020 vote totals in Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Overall voter turnout significantly surpassed the 135.6 million votes cast in the 2016 presidential election, where Trump defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton. However, the challenge for Democrats in 2024 was that Trump performed better in these key battleground states compared to 2020.
“The Harris campaign did a pretty good job getting voters out who wouldn’t have come out,” acknowledged Tom Bonier, a Democratic data analyst. “She did get her voters out. Trump got more.”
Trump’s increased turnout included first-time voters like 26-year-old Jasmine Perez, who voted for Trump at a polling station in the Las Vegas Raiders stadium.
“I’m a Christian and he really aligns with a lot of my values as a Christian in America, and I like that he openly promotes Christianity in America,” Perez explained, highlighting the role of faith in her voting decision.
Diego Zubek, 27, who voted alongside Perez, had voted for Trump in 2016 but abstained in 2020, assuming a Trump victory. He voted for Trump again in 2024.
“I wasn’t going to let that happen again,” Zubek stated, indicating a renewed sense of urgency to participate.
A crucial aspect of the Republican strategy was reaching out to voters like Perez and Zubek, actively promoting early and mail-in voting. This marked a shift from the previous two election cycles where Republicans had largely avoided these methods due to Trump’s unfounded claims of voter fraud. Conservatives implemented extensive voter registration and get-out-the-vote campaigns aimed at less frequent voters – a demographic many operatives had traditionally believed leaned away from the GOP.
Image alt text: West Virginia Governor Patrick Morrisey inauguration, Charleston 2025, signaling conservative political shift in the state.
According to AP data tracking, over half of the votes in 2024 were cast before Election Day through advanced voting methods.
Andrew Kolvet, a spokesperson for Turning Point Action, a conservative organization that conducted a significant get-out-the-vote campaign in battleground states, cited Stacey Abrams as an inspiration. Abrams’ success in mobilizing Black voters and other less-likely voting groups in Georgia in previous elections paved the way for Biden’s 2020 victory in that state, and served as a model for the GOP’s 2024 efforts.
“We saw that Trump has this amazing reservoir of low-propensity conservatives who needed a little coaxing,” Kolvet said. “They didn’t think their vote mattered, and their No. 1 pushback was they didn’t understand, really, how to vote.”
Kolvet acknowledged the long-held conservative belief that high voter turnout was detrimental to their party but argued that this has changed in the Trump era. “Our ideas are more popular,” he asserted.
The future impact of these trends remains to be seen, depending on political developments in Washington.
“It’s going to be up to conservatives to make good on those campaign promises,” Kolvet concluded, suggesting that the Republican party’s ability to maintain this high turnout advantage will depend on their governance and policy outcomes.
