For decades, the United States has reigned supreme in undersea warfare, a domain where its submarine capabilities have been virtually unchallenged. The numbers speak volumes: the U.S. Navy operates a formidable fleet of 66 nuclear submarines, dwarfing China’s count of 12. These nuclear-powered vessels are not just numerically superior but also technologically advanced, boasting greater range, stealth, and offensive firepower compared to their diesel-electric counterparts. Furthermore, U.S. submarines are equipped with a staggering 1,168 Vertical Launch System (VLS) cells, a capability currently absent in China’s submarine fleet, although projections suggest China is moving towards incorporating VLS technology in the near future.
However, this picture of undisputed American dominance is facing a growing challenge. China’s submarine force, while currently smaller and less technologically mature overall, is rapidly modernizing and expanding. This isn’t necessarily about a technological breakthrough by China surpassing the U.S., but rather the sheer scale of Chinese production and its determined effort to close the gap. Reports from the U.S. Department of Defense in 2023 anticipate China’s submarine fleet swelling to 80 units by 2035, as older systems are replaced with newer, more capable vessels. This remarkable production rate, even if a significant portion remains diesel-powered, signals a clear intent to challenge U.S. undersea superiority. Adding to this dynamic, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is actively developing its anti-submarine warfare (ASW) capabilities, although progress in this area appears to be lagging somewhat behind its advancements in surface warfare.
Submarine Numbers and Types: A Quantitative Comparison
When comparing the submarine fleets of the United States and China, the numerical disparity in nuclear-powered submarines is immediately apparent. The U.S. operates exclusively nuclear submarines, leveraging their superior endurance and operational range. In contrast, China’s current fleet is a mix of nuclear and diesel-electric submarines. While diesel-electric submarines offer advantages in littoral waters and can be quieter in certain scenarios, nuclear submarines provide unmatched blue-water capabilities, crucial for global power projection and sustained operations far from home ports. The sheer number of U.S. nuclear submarines provides a significant operational advantage, allowing for persistent presence in key strategic locations worldwide.
Technological Edge and Capabilities: Qualitative Differences
Beyond numbers, the qualitative aspects of submarine technology further highlight the current U.S. advantage. U.S. submarines are generally considered to be quieter, more advanced in sensor technology, and possess superior weapons systems. The integration of VLS cells on U.S. submarines provides a significant offensive punch, enabling them to launch cruise missiles and potentially other payloads. While China is making strides in submarine technology, and its latest submarines are becoming increasingly sophisticated, the U.S. retains a lead in key areas. However, the pace of China’s technological improvement is undeniable, and the gap is narrowing. The future introduction of VLS-equipped submarines by China would represent a significant leap in its offensive capabilities.
Submarine Production and Future Growth: Industrial Capacity Matters
The future balance of undersea power will be heavily influenced by submarine production capacity. Here, the picture becomes more complex for the United States. Despite its current technological lead, the U.S. submarine industrial base is under strain. U.S. shipyards are struggling to maintain the production rate necessary to even sustain the current fleet size, let alone expand it. The demand for Virginia-class submarines is high, but production is hampered by supply chain issues, rising material costs, and a shortage of skilled workers. In contrast, China’s shipbuilding industry is vast and rapidly expanding. The projected growth of China’s submarine fleet to 80 units by 2035 underscores its impressive production capacity. This industrial might could eventually offset some of the U.S.’s technological advantages if the U.S. fails to revitalize its submarine industrial base.
Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW): A Critical Countermeasure
Recognizing the growing submarine threat, both the U.S. and China are investing heavily in anti-submarine warfare capabilities. ASW encompasses a wide range of assets, including surface ships, aircraft, and other submarines, as well as sensors and tactics designed to detect, track, and neutralize enemy submarines. The U.S. Navy has a long history of ASW expertise and possesses a sophisticated array of ASW assets. China is also prioritizing ASW development, aiming to protect its growing surface fleet and counter potential submarine threats. However, ASW is a complex and challenging domain, and it remains to be seen how effectively China can close the gap with the U.S. in this critical area. Current assessments suggest China’s ASW capabilities are still developing and may not be keeping pace with its advancements in submarine technology.
Strategic Implications and the Ticking Clock: Maintaining the Undersea Advantage
The trends in submarine development have significant strategic implications. As China’s submarine force grows in size and capability, the U.S. advantage in the undersea domain is eroding. This shift could have profound consequences for the balance of power in the Pacific and beyond. Open-source wargaming and strategic analysis suggest that U.S. submarines would play a crucial role in any potential conflict with China, particularly in scenarios involving Taiwan. Maintaining a credible undersea deterrent and offensive capability is therefore vital for the United States. The urgent need to strengthen the U.S. submarine industrial base is reflected in the U.S. Navy’s Fiscal Year 2025 Unfunded Priorities List, where significant funding requests are dedicated to submarine programs and industrial base improvements.
While the U.S. Navy retains significant strengths, including superior combat experience and a long-standing naval tradition, the rapid advancements of China’s submarine force cannot be ignored. The coming years will be critical in determining whether the United States can maintain its undersea dominance or if it will face a more contested maritime environment, potentially altering the global balance of power. The clock is ticking for the U.S. to address the challenges to its submarine industrial base and ensure its continued undersea advantage.
