The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted global health, but how do its mortality rates compare to those of the seasonal flu? While direct comparisons are complex, data suggests key differences in the number of deaths caused by each.
Flu and Pneumonia Deaths vs. COVID-19 Deaths: A Recent Look
Recent data reveals that while flu and pneumonia deaths increased in the winter of 2021-2022 compared to the previous winter, they remained below pre-pandemic levels. There were 6,898 deaths attributed to flu and pneumonia between December 2021 and March 2022 in England and Wales, up from 5,288 deaths during the same period the previous year. However, COVID-19 deaths during the 2021-2022 winter still outnumbered those from flu and pneumonia.
This contrasts sharply with the winter of 2020-2021, where COVID-19 dramatically increased excess deaths – those above the five-year average. Combined deaths from COVID-19 and flu/pneumonia significantly surpassed flu/pneumonia deaths in pre-pandemic years.
Factors Influencing Mortality Data
Several factors complicate direct comparisons between COVID-19 and flu mortality:
- Infection and Antibody Levels: Pre-existing immunity to influenza within the population can impact flu death rates. COVID-19, being a novel virus, initially lacked this widespread immunity.
- Vaccination Rates: Flu vaccination campaigns have long been established, contributing to lower mortality rates. COVID-19 vaccination rollouts, while rapid, occurred during the pandemic’s evolution.
- Public Health Measures: Lockdowns, social distancing, and mask mandates implemented to control COVID-19 likely also suppressed flu transmission, leading to unusually low flu mortality in recent years.
- Viral Variants: The emergence of new COVID-19 variants with varying transmissibility and severity further complicates mortality comparisons.
Ongoing Monitoring and Future Trends
While COVID-19 deaths have decreased from their initial peak, they still exceed flu and pneumonia deaths. However, flu and pneumonia deaths, currently at historic lows, are showing signs of increasing. Continuous monitoring of these trends is crucial. The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) publishes weekly national flu and COVID-19 surveillance reports, providing valuable insights. Public Health England previously utilized the FluMOMO statistical model to estimate flu-associated deaths.
Conclusion
Data indicates that COVID-19 has resulted in significantly more deaths than flu and pneumonia in recent years. While flu/pneumonia mortality increased slightly in the 2021-2022 winter, it remained below pre-pandemic levels and substantially lower than COVID-19 mortality. Various factors influence these figures, making direct comparison challenging. Continued surveillance and research are vital for understanding the long-term mortality trends of both diseases.
