The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted global mortality rates. But how do COVID-19 deaths compare to those from influenza (flu)? While direct comparisons are complex, available data reveals key trends and differences.
COVID-19 vs. Flu: Winter Mortality Trends
During the winter of 2021-2022, deaths attributed to flu and pneumonia in England and Wales increased compared to the previous winter (2020-2021), reaching 6,898 compared to 5,288. However, these numbers remained significantly lower than pre-pandemic levels. This suggests that measures implemented to mitigate COVID-19, such as lockdowns and social distancing, likely reduced flu transmission.
Despite the decline in flu and pneumonia deaths during the pandemic’s initial stages, COVID-19 caused a sharp surge in excess deaths (deaths exceeding the five-year average) during the winter of 2020-2021. Combined deaths from COVID-19 and flu/pneumonia substantially surpassed flu/pneumonia deaths alone in pre-pandemic years.
By the winter of 2021-2022, COVID-19 deaths decreased, aligning more closely with pre-pandemic flu/pneumonia mortality figures. However, COVID-19 deaths were still double those from flu and pneumonia during this period, primarily due to historically low flu/pneumonia deaths in the two preceding winters.
Challenges in Direct Comparison
Directly comparing COVID-19 and flu mortality is challenging due to various factors:
- Data Collection Differences: Variations in reporting and data collection methods for COVID-19 and flu can affect comparison accuracy.
- Impact of Public Health Measures: Lockdowns, social distancing, mask mandates, and vaccination campaigns significantly impacted both COVID-19 and flu transmission and mortality, making it difficult to isolate the true impact of each virus.
- Viral Evolution: The emergence of new COVID-19 variants with varying transmissibility and severity further complicates comparisons. Flu viruses also evolve, but their impact on mortality is generally more predictable.
Conclusion: COVID-19 Mortality Remains Higher
While flu and pneumonia deaths saw a slight resurgence in the winter of 2021-2022, they remained historically low. COVID-19 deaths, although declining, were still higher than flu and pneumonia deaths during the same period. Long-term trends and the potential for future seasonal patterns of COVID-19 remain uncertain. Continuous monitoring and further research are essential for a comprehensive understanding of the comparative mortality of these respiratory illnesses. Resources from Public Health England (now UK Health Security Agency) and the Office for National Statistics provide further insights into these trends.
