The United States has long dominated the underwater realm with its superior submarine capabilities. While discussions about national size often focus on land area, examining naval power offers a different perspective on relative strength. This article will explore the current state of U.S. and Chinese submarine fleets, highlighting the significant disparity in size and capability, and what it might mean for the future balance of power.
A Gap in Submersible Strength
The U.S. Navy boasts 66 nuclear submarines, dwarfing China’s current fleet of 12. This numerical advantage is compounded by the superior capabilities of large nuclear submarines compared to their diesel-electric counterparts. Nuclear submarines possess greater range, stealth, and offensive firepower, crucial factors in projecting power across vast oceans. Furthermore, U.S. submarines collectively have 1,168 Vertical Launch System (VLS) cells, enabling them to launch a wide array of missiles. In contrast, Chinese submarines currently lack confirmed VLS capabilities, although experts predict they will develop this technology in the coming years.
A US Navy submarine at sea.
China’s Subsurface Surge
While currently outmatched, China’s submarine force is undergoing rapid expansion and modernization. The country’s technological advancements in submarine design and its growing production capacity are undeniable. A 2023 Department of Defense report projects that China’s submarine fleet will swell to 80 units by 2035, replacing older vessels with newer, more advanced models. While most of these submarines will likely be diesel-electric, the sheer scale of production represents a significant shift in naval power. Simultaneously, China is prioritizing anti-submarine warfare (ASW), enhancing its doctrine and assets to counter the U.S. submarine threat. However, the pace of improvement in ASW appears to lag behind its surface warfare capabilities.
A Chinese Submarine in drydock.
The Importance of Subsea Supremacy
Maintaining a substantial submarine advantage is vital for the United States. Wargames and strategic analyses suggest that U.S. submarines could play a decisive role in a potential conflict with China. These underwater vessels could disrupt Chinese naval operations, protect critical sea lanes, and project power into contested areas. However, the U.S. faces challenges in sustaining its submarine fleet. Its two submarine shipyards are struggling to produce the two Virginia-class submarines per year needed to maintain, let alone expand, the current fleet size. Efforts to boost construction capacity face headwinds, including escalating material costs and labor shortages. The U.S. Navy’s prioritization of funding for its submarine industrial base underscores the criticality of this issue.
A Sea of Uncertainty
While China’s naval expansion is concerning, it doesn’t guarantee victory in a potential conflict. Warfare is inherently complex, influenced by numerous factors beyond naval hardware. The U.S. Navy’s extensive combat experience, longstanding naval tradition, and the involvement of other military domains (air, land, space, cyber) in any future conflict would all play significant roles. Additionally, the United States possesses advantages beyond naval power, including its network of alliances, economic strength, and global influence. Nevertheless, the current trends indicate a shift in the balance of naval power. The U.S. Navy faces a growing risk of defeat at sea for the first time in decades, and China’s rising naval might could challenge U.S. maritime dominance in the Pacific. The United States must address these challenges to maintain stability and security in the region and globally.
US and Chinese naval ships in close proximity.
