When we talk about global superpowers, the United States and China invariably dominate the conversation. Their economies, populations, and international influence are constantly compared and contrasted. But when it comes to military might, and specifically naval power, how do these two nations stack up? While geographical size isn’t the direct measure, understanding the scale and capabilities of their navies offers a crucial perspective on their overall global standing and strategic ambitions.
The United States has long been the undisputed king of the seas. This dominance is particularly evident in its submarine fleet. Currently, the U.S. Navy operates a formidable force of 66 nuclear-powered submarines. These are not just any submarines; nuclear propulsion grants them unparalleled advantages in range, stealth, and offensive capabilities compared to their diesel-electric counterparts. To put it in perspective, U.S. submarines boast a combined total of 1,168 Vertical Launch System (VLS) cells. These cells are critical for launching a variety of missiles, significantly enhancing their offensive firepower.
Contrast this with China. The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) operates a smaller submarine fleet, currently numbering around 12 nuclear submarines. While the exact number fluctuates and is subject to ongoing development, the qualitative difference is significant. Currently, PLAN submarines lack confirmed VLS cells, although projections from various experts suggest that China is actively working towards incorporating VLS technology into their future submarine designs. This technological gap, while potentially narrowing, highlights the existing disparity in subsurface capabilities.
However, it’s crucial to understand that the comparison isn’t static. China is rapidly closing the gap in naval technology and production. While the U.S. has a significant head start, built upon decades of experience and a robust industrial base, China’s submarine technology is advancing at an impressive pace. Moreover, China’s submarine production capacity is also expanding. Recent reports, including a 2023 Department of Defense assessment, anticipate China growing its submarine force to approximately 80 units by 2035. This projected growth, even if a majority of these are not nuclear-powered, represents a remarkable level of naval expansion.
This rapid development extends beyond just submarines. China has been investing heavily in its entire naval arsenal, including surface warships and anti-submarine warfare (ASW) capabilities. ASW has become a priority for the PLAN, with ongoing improvements to its doctrine and assets. However, some analysts suggest that progress in ASW may still lag behind the advancements in its surface fleet, indicating areas where the U.S. maintains an edge.
Maintaining its naval advantage, particularly in the subsurface domain, remains vitally important for the United States. Strategic analysis and open-source wargaming scenarios consistently point to the decisive role that U.S. submarines could play in any potential conflict, especially in a theater like the Pacific. However, the U.S. submarine industrial base is facing its own challenges. Shipyards are currently under strain, struggling to maintain the production rate of Virginia-class submarines needed to sustain and potentially grow the fleet. Efforts to increase construction capacity are facing headwinds, including rising material costs and labor shortages, just as China’s naval ambitions are accelerating. This pressure is reflected in the U.S. Navy’s Fiscal Year 2025 Unfunded Priorities List, where significant funding requests are earmarked for bolstering the submarine industrial base and ASW capabilities.
It’s crucial to avoid simplistic conclusions about future conflicts. Warfare is inherently complex, and naval power is just one piece of the puzzle. The U.S. Navy benefits from vastly greater combat experience and time at sea compared to the PLAN. The U.S. also possesses a long-standing blue-water naval tradition, while China’s modern naval development is a more recent phenomenon. Furthermore, any potential conflict would involve all branches of the military – air, land, space, and cyber – where the relative strengths of each nation will also play a critical role, alongside factors like strategy, leadership, and even luck.
While China’s naval growth is undeniable, it’s not a foregone conclusion that they will surpass the United States as the dominant naval power, either globally or even in the Pacific. Drawing definitive long-term conclusions from current trends is inherently uncertain, especially when relying on open-source information about a secretive organization like the PLAN. The U.S. retains significant advantages, including a network of strong alliances, a larger economic base in many metrics, and considerable soft power – factors that go beyond a simple hardware comparison.
Nevertheless, the trends indicate a shifting balance of naval power. For the first time in decades, the U.S. Navy faces a growing possibility of being challenged at sea. China’s expanding naval capabilities are already enabling Beijing to project power in the Pacific in ways that are creating concern among U.S. allies and impacting regional stability. The question is not necessarily about absolute size, but about relative capability and the shifting balance of power. If the United States fails to address the challenges to its naval dominance, the world may indeed be heading towards a more uncertain and potentially dangerous future.
