The 2024 Texas primary elections saw a notable decrease in voter participation compared to the high turnout of 2020, particularly in early voting. While the Republican primary maintained strong numbers, driven by figures like former President Donald Trump, the Democratic primary experienced a significant drop, contributing to an overall decline across the state. This analysis delves into the early voting trends, comparing them to the 2020 election cycle and exploring the potential factors behind these shifts.
Approximately 3.2 million Texans cast their ballots in the 2024 primaries. Republicans demonstrated robust engagement with 2.3 million votes, while Democrats recorded around 975,000. This contrasts sharply with the over 4 million Texans who voted in the 2020 primary election, a year that witnessed higher enthusiasm and even saw Democratic voter turnout exceed that of Republicans.
Despite an increase in the number of registered voters in Texas since 2020, the 2024 primary turnout diminished. The decline is primarily attributed to reduced Democratic participation, as Republican turnout saw a slight increase but not enough to offset the substantial decrease in Democratic votes.
One prominent factor influencing this turnout disparity is the less competitive nature of the 2024 Democratic primary, especially at the presidential level. In 2020, Joe Biden’s Super Tuesday surge marked a pivotal moment in a tightly contested race, galvanizing Democratic voters. In contrast, the 2024 Democratic presidential primary lacked similar suspense, potentially dampening voter enthusiasm.
Voters across all Texas counties participated in selecting nominees for presidential, congressional, and state legislative races, alongside local judicial and county positions. Early voting, which spanned from February 20 to March 1, and mail-in voting accounted for a slight majority of the total votes cast. However, early voting figures themselves reveal a decrease compared to 2020. Around 1.8 million people voted early in 2024, representing about 10% of registered voters. This is a decrease of 200,000 early votes compared to the 2020 primary, where 12.6% of registered voters cast their ballots early.
Regional Turnout Variations: Urban vs. Rural
The decline in voter turnout was most pronounced in Texas’s major urban centers, including Harris, Bexar, Dallas, and Travis counties. These counties experienced a turnout of only 13.9% of voters, significantly lower than the 24% turnout in 2020. Similar decreases were observed in border counties and rapidly growing suburban areas like Tarrant, Fort Bend, Collin, Denton, Hays, and Williamson counties.
In contrast, the 216 predominantly rural counties, traditionally Republican strongholds, experienced a less dramatic dip in participation rates, with a decrease of approximately 4.1 percentage points. This suggests that while overall turnout was down, the enthusiasm within the Republican base, particularly in rural areas, remained relatively stable.
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Factors Contributing to Lower Early Voting Turnout
Political science experts suggest several reasons for the reduced voter turnout in the 2024 Texas primaries compared to 2020, particularly in early voting.
Lack of Enthusiasm for Presidential Rematch
Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston, points to a potential lack of enthusiasm for a widely anticipated presidential rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. “I think there is less enthusiasm for the big matchup in 2024,” Rottinghaus stated. “We’ve been there, done that, and I think a lot of voters are kind of sitting on the sidelines until things change.” This voter fatigue could contribute to lower engagement in primary elections, especially when the general election candidates seem predetermined.
Stable Republican Turnout Driven by Local Contests
Rottinghaus also noted the stable turnout in heavily Republican counties. He attributes this to engaging intra-party contests within the Republican party, fueled by figures like Governor Greg Abbott and Attorney General Ken Paxton. These local battles, focused on issues like school vouchers and challenges to incumbent Republicans, may have energized Republican voters, maintaining their turnout despite the overall trend.
Reduced Competitiveness in Democratic Races
The lack of intensely competitive statewide Democratic races may have also played a role in decreased Democratic turnout. While there was a Democratic primary to determine the challenger to U.S. Senator Ted Cruz, the perceived frontrunner status of U.S. Representative Colin Allred might have discouraged some voters. Rottinghaus suggests that when elections are perceived as non-competitive, it can negatively impact voter turnout. Allred indeed secured a decisive victory over his primary opponent, State Senator Roland Gutierrez.
Demographic Factors: Younger Voters
Younger voters, who typically exhibit lower turnout rates, constitute a significant portion of Texas’s population. Texas has a younger median age compared to the national average. Data indicates that early voting among individuals under 30 was roughly equivalent to that of voters aged 85 and older, highlighting the lower engagement of younger demographics in this primary cycle.
Impact of New Voting Laws
Changes to Texas voting laws, particularly those related to mail-in voting implemented in 2021, may have also contributed to the lower early voting numbers. These new requirements, including mandatory driver’s license or Social Security number provision on mail-in ballot applications, could create confusion and barriers for voters. Bob Stein, a political science professor at Rice University, suggests that even regular voters can be confused by evolving election laws, potentially suppressing turnout. The stricter mail-in voting rules may have contributed to the decrease in mail-in ballots, which constituted a smaller percentage of early votes in 2024 compared to 2020.
Lack of Candidate Outreach to New Residents
Texas’s significant population growth, driven largely by migration, has increased the number of registered voters. However, this growth did not translate into increased early voting turnout. Professor Stein proposes that candidates may not effectively target new residents, whose voting history is less known, potentially overlooking a segment of the electorate that could be mobilized.
Conclusion
The 2024 Texas primary elections witnessed a decline in early voting turnout compared to the high-water mark of 2020. This decrease is largely attributable to reduced Democratic participation and influenced by factors such as less competitive Democratic races, voter fatigue related to the anticipated presidential election, demographic trends, and potentially, the impact of new voting laws. While Republican turnout remained relatively stable, the overall lower numbers highlight the dynamic nature of voter engagement and the various factors that can influence election participation rates. Understanding these trends is crucial for analyzing electoral behavior and anticipating future voter turnout patterns in Texas and beyond.
