The 2020 presidential election witnessed a remarkable surge in voter participation, reaching levels not seen in over a century. This unprecedented turnout sparked significant interest in how subsequent elections would fare, particularly the 2022 midterms. Understanding voter behavior in these pivotal election years provides crucial insights into the evolving dynamics of American democracy. This analysis delves into the voter turnout of the 2022 election, contrasting it with the landmark 2020 election, and examining the demographic factors and voting methods that shaped these electoral outcomes.
Record Voter Turnout in 2020 and Continued High Turnout in 2022
The elections of 2018, 2020, and 2022 stand out as periods of exceptionally high voter engagement in the United States. In 2020, approximately two-thirds (66%) of the voting-eligible population cast their ballots, marking the highest turnout rate for a national election since 1900. This surge in participation underscored a heightened civic engagement and political awareness among Americans. The 2018 midterm elections also saw remarkable turnout, with 49% of eligible voters participating, the highest rate for a midterm since 1914. Even the 2022 midterm elections, while experiencing a slight dip to 46% turnout, still surpassed all other midterm elections since 1970. While the 2020 election set a high bar for voter participation, the 2022 midterms demonstrated a continued trend of robust engagement, especially when compared to historical midterm election cycles.
Chart showing the consistency of American voters across the 2018, 2020, and 2022 elections.
Intermittent Voters and Party Affiliation
While a segment of the electorate consistently votes in every election and another segment consistently abstains, a substantial portion of voters participate intermittently. These intermittent voters play a crucial role in shaping election outcomes, especially in a closely divided political landscape like the U.S. Between 2018 and 2022, 70% of eligible U.S. adult citizens voted in at least one of the three elections, with 37% voting in all three.
Interestingly, the partisan affiliations of different voter groups reveal nuanced patterns. Among those who voted in at least one election during this period, Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents were equally represented as Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (48% each). This balance persisted even among the most consistent voters who participated in all three elections (49% Democrats, 50% Republicans). However, among citizens who did not vote in any of the three elections, Republicans held a slight advantage (46% to 41%).
Examining specific groups of intermittent voters further highlights these partisan dynamics. Democrats outnumbered Republicans among the 8% of adult citizens who voted in both 2018 and 2020 but not in 2022 (55% Democratic, 40% Republican). Conversely, a similarly sized group (8%) who voted in 2020 and 2022 but not 2018 leaned Republican (57% vs. 40% Democratic). The 12% who voted in the high-turnout 2020 election but skipped both midterms were roughly evenly split between Democrats (46%) and Republicans (43%). The presence of a large pool of intermittent voters, with relatively balanced partisan affiliations, indicates that both parties have significant potential support to mobilize in any given election.
Racial and Ethnic Differences in Voter Turnout and Preferences
Race and ethnicity remain fundamental factors shaping political preferences and voter turnout in the United States. Significant disparities exist in both political alignment and electoral participation across different racial and ethnic groups.
Black, Hispanic, and Asian voters predominantly favor the Democratic Party, although the degree of Democratic support varies among these groups. Notably, Republican candidates have made some inroads among Hispanic voters in recent election cycles. Black voters remain a stronghold for the Democratic Party, with 93% supporting Democratic U.S. House candidates in 2022. Hispanic and Asian voters also favored Democrats, but by narrower margins (60% to 39% and 68% to 32%, respectively).
Chart illustrating the racial and ethnic divide in vote choice for the U.S. House in the 2022 election.
However, when comparing voter consistency across racial groups, White Americans demonstrate significantly higher rates of consistent voting compared to Black, Hispanic, and Asian Americans. While 37% of all eligible voters participated in all three elections (2018, 2020, and 2022), 43% of White eligible citizens did so. In contrast, only 24% of White citizens did not vote in any of these elections. Black (27%), Hispanic (19%), and Asian (21%) eligible citizens lagged behind in consistent voting across all three elections. Hispanic citizens showed the highest rate of non-participation, with 47% not voting in any of the three elections.
Chart comparing voter consistency by race and ethnicity between 2018 and 2022 elections.
Education Differences within Racial Groups
Educational attainment further intersects with racial demographics to shape voter behavior. Among White adults without a college degree, who constitute a substantial 41% of eligible voters, voter turnout consistency aligns with the national average. However, this demographic group strongly favored Republican House candidates in 2022 (66% to 32%).
Conversely, White adults with college degrees exhibit remarkably high voter turnout rates. 56% of college-educated White adults voted in all three elections, and only 13% did not participate in any. This group, while representing 24% of the eligible electorate, constituted about a third of voters in 2022 (34%). Historically Republican-leaning, college-educated White voters have shifted towards the Democratic Party in recent elections, favoring Democratic candidates in 2022 (52% to 47%).
This educational divide in voter preferences among White voters was not as pronounced among Black or Hispanic voters. However, within both Black and Hispanic communities, college-educated adults demonstrated higher voter turnout rates compared to those without a college degree across all three elections. While a minor education gap emerged in 2020 presidential preference among Hispanic voters, it was not statistically significant in 2018 or 2022 for either Black or Hispanic voters.
The interplay of racial and educational factors in voter preferences and turnout patterns highlights a complex electoral landscape. Republican candidates benefited from the significant size of the White adult population without a college degree and their relatively consistent turnout. The Democratic gains among highly-engaged, college-educated White voters partially offset the Republican advantage among non-college educated White voters. However, non-college educated White adults still represent a larger share of the overall electorate.
Voters vs. Nonvoters: Demographic Divide
The demographic profiles of voters and nonvoters in the 2022 midterm elections mirrored trends observed in previous U.S. elections, revealing persistent disparities.
Age emerged as a significant differentiator. Voters were considerably older on average than nonvoters. Adults under 50 constituted only 36% of voters, but a significant 64% of nonvoters. This age gap in voter participation was consistent with the 2018 elections, although younger voters made up a slightly larger share of the electorate in 2018 (40%).
Racial and ethnic disparities also persisted between voters and nonvoters. White, non-Hispanic adults comprised 75% of voters but a smaller 55% of nonvoters. Hispanic adults and Black, non-Hispanic adults each made up 9% of voters but larger proportions of nonvoters (18% and 15%, respectively). Asian Americans accounted for 3% of voters and a slightly higher 5% of nonvoters. These patterns closely mirrored the demographic differences between voters and nonvoters observed in 2018.
Education and income levels also significantly diverged between voters and nonvoters. Adults with a college degree represented 43% of voters in 2022 but only 25% of nonvoters. Conversely, those without a college degree comprised 56% of voters but a larger 74% of nonvoters.
Chart illustrating demographic disparities between voters and nonvoters based on age, race, and education.
Shift in Voting Methods: 2022 vs. 2020
The 2020 election, held amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, saw a significant shift towards absentee and mail-in voting. As pandemic concerns subsided in 2022, voting methods shifted again, moving closer to pre-pandemic norms.
In 2022, 43% of voters reported casting their ballot in person on Election Day. A smaller 36% voted absentee or by mail, and 21% voted in person before Election Day. This represents a notable shift from the 2020 election, where 45% of voters used absentee or mail-in ballots, and equal shares (27%) voted in person on Election Day or beforehand.
Partisan preferences strongly correlated with voting methods. Republican voters were significantly more likely to vote in person on Election Day. Approximately half (51%) of Republican voters reported voting on Election Day in 2022, compared to 38% in 2020. Democratic voters, conversely, favored absentee and mail-in voting. In 2022, 45% of Democratic voters used mail-in ballots, a decrease from the 58% who did so in 2020.
Chart comparing voting methods used in the 2022 and 2020 elections, highlighting the decrease in absentee/mail-in voting in 2022.
This partisan divide in voting methods translated into distinct candidate support based on how people voted. Republicans secured a majority (60% to 38%) among those who voted in person on Election Day. Democrats, by an identical margin, won voters who used mail-in or absentee ballots. Voters who cast ballots in person before Election Day were more divided, slightly favoring Republicans (53% Republican, 46% Democratic).
Chart showing the correlation between voting methods and candidate support in the 2022 election.
Conclusion
The 2022 midterm elections, while not reaching the historic turnout of 2020, still demonstrated a high level of voter engagement compared to previous midterm cycles. Voter turnout in 2022 reflected a normalization of voting methods compared to the pandemic-era election of 2020, with a decrease in mail-in voting and a corresponding increase in in-person voting. Demographic disparities in voter turnout and candidate preference persisted, highlighting the enduring influence of factors like age, race, and education on electoral participation. Understanding these trends and the nuances of voter behavior in both 2020 and 2022 is essential for comprehending the evolving dynamics of the American electorate and the factors shaping election outcomes.
