The 2018 European heatwave brought record-breaking temperatures across the continent. A study by the Environmental Change Institute (ECI) at the University of Oxford, in collaboration with the World Weather Attribution network (WWA), examined the role of climate change in this extreme weather event. A weather researcher compared Dublin, Ireland, to several other Northern European locations to understand the impact.
Comparing Historical Temperatures Across Europe
Researchers analyzed historical temperature data from seven weather stations across Northern Europe: two in Finland, and one each in Denmark, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden. These stations were chosen for their readily available current data and digitized records dating back to the early 20th century. The team focused on the hottest three consecutive days in each year’s record, comparing them to the predicted hottest three days of 2018.
Climate Change More Than Doubles Heatwave Likelihood in Some Regions
The study revealed that climate change significantly increased the likelihood of the 2018 heatwave. While the impact varied across locations, the southern stations showed the most dramatic results. The weather researcher compared Dublin, Ireland, to Copenhagen, Denmark, and De Bilt, Netherlands. In these three cities, climate change more than doubled the probability of experiencing such extreme heat.
Specifically, in Dublin, the likelihood increased by a factor of 2. In Copenhagen, the odds increased by a factor of 5, and in De Bilt, by a factor of 3.3. While the northern stations also showed an increased likelihood, quantifying the exact impact proved more challenging due to higher year-to-year temperature variability.
Preliminary Findings with Significant Implications
The report acknowledges its preliminary nature, relying on forecast temperatures for 2018 rather than final measurements. However, the findings strongly suggest a link between climate change and the increased frequency of extreme weather events. The researchers emphasize the need for societal preparedness and the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate future risks.
Future Research and Publication
The WWA team intends to publish a more comprehensive analysis in a scientific journal, examining the role of climate change in the prolonged high-pressure system observed in Northern Europe since May 2018. This research builds upon previous WWA studies that have linked climate change to specific extreme weather events, including heavy rainfall in Northern England and Hurricane Harvey in Houston. These findings contribute to a growing body of evidence highlighting the urgent need to address climate change.
