The 2024 presidential election witnessed an impressive level of voter participation, nearly matching the record-breaking turnout of the 2020 election. This high engagement challenges conventional political wisdom, which has often suggested that Republican candidates face difficulties when voter turnout is high.
Data from the Associated Press indicates that over 153 million votes were cast in the recent election between Republican Donald Trump, the president-elect, and Democrat Kamala Harris, the vice president. With ongoing ballot counting in states like California, the final tally is expected to approach the nearly 158 million votes cast in the 2020 presidential election. The 2020 election marked the highest voter turnout since women gained the right to vote a century ago, setting a significant benchmark for electoral participation.
Eitan Hersh, a political scientist from Tufts University, commented on this phenomenon, stating, “Trump is great for voter turnout in both parties.” This observation underscores Trump’s unique ability to galvanize voters across the political spectrum.
The election results also defied another widely held political tenet: that high voter turnout typically favors Democrats. Donald Trump secured victory in both the Electoral College and the popular vote, leading Kamala Harris by approximately 2.5 million votes nationwide. This outcome suggests a shift in traditional assumptions about the relationship between voter turnout and electoral success for Republicans and Democrats.
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In the lead-up to the 2020 election, Donald Trump himself expressed concerns about high turnout, particularly regarding mail-in voting. He warned that expanded mail balloting, advocated for by Democrats, would lead to unprecedented voter numbers that would disadvantage Republicans in future elections. These statements were part of a broader narrative in which Trump began promoting conspiracy theories about mail-in voting during the COVID-19 pandemic. He subsequently used these theories to falsely claim that his 2020 election loss was due to widespread voter fraud.
Trump’s claims of voter fraud spurred significant legislative activity. In states controlled by the Republican party, numerous new laws were enacted to introduce stricter regulations and curtail various forms of voting access. Conversely, states under Democratic leadership expanded mail-in voting options. This legislative divergence highlights the intense partisan battle over voter turnout and access, which became a central theme in political discourse. Despite the heated rhetoric, experts like Hersh argue that the actual impact of these voting regulations on turnout is often minimal. He describes the partisan debate over voter turnout as “an embarrassing story for proponents on both sides, because it’s so obviously wrong,” suggesting that both Democrats and Republicans overestimate the impact of voting rules on election outcomes.
While disputes over election administration are likely to persist, Trump’s victory in an election characterized by high voter turnout may reduce the urgency of this conflict. Patrick Ruffini, a Republican data analyst and pollster, believes that Trump’s win, despite high participation, could lead to a decrease in partisan tensions surrounding voter turnout. Ruffini, who has long maintained that the Republican party can succeed in high-turnout elections with a diverse electorate, notes, “Now I think, you just won the popular vote, I think it’ll quiet down.”
Election experts have also pointed out that voter turnout in key swing states was even higher than the national average. Ruffini observed, “This was a campaign in seven states much more so than previous elections have felt like,” emphasizing the concentrated nature of the 2024 election campaign in a limited number of battleground states.
In contrast to the national trend, voter turnout in non-competitive states declined compared to 2020. Illinois, for example, recorded over 500,000 fewer votes than in the previous presidential election, and Ohio saw a decrease of more than 300,000 votes. However, in crucial battleground states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, voter turnout surpassed 2020 levels. Notably, every one of these swing states was won by Donald Trump in the 2024 election. Arizona’s turnout was nearly identical to 2020 as vote counting continued.
Interestingly, Kamala Harris matched or exceeded Joe Biden’s 2020 vote totals in Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Furthermore, turnout in these states significantly exceeded the 135.6 million votes cast in the 2016 presidential election. Despite these gains for Democrats in voter mobilization, the critical factor was that Donald Trump improved his performance in these battleground states compared to 2020.
Tom Bonier, a Democratic data analyst, acknowledged the effectiveness of the Harris campaign in voter mobilization, stating, “The Harris campaign did a pretty good job getting voters out who wouldn’t have come out. She did get her voters out. Trump got more.” This suggests that while Democratic efforts to boost turnout were successful, the Republican party, under Trump, achieved even greater success in mobilizing their base and attracting new voters.
Among these new voters were individuals like Jasmine Perez, a 26-year-old first-time voter who cast her ballot for Trump at a polling location in Las Vegas. Perez explained her motivation, stating, “I’m a Christian and he really aligns with a lot of my values as a Christian in America, and I like that he openly promotes Christianity in America.” Diego Zubek, 27, who voted for Trump in 2016 but sat out the 2020 election, also voted for Trump in 2024, driven by a sense of urgency. “I wasn’t going to let that happen again,” Zubek said, indicating a heightened sense of political engagement among Trump supporters.
A key component of the Republican strategy in 2024 was a concerted effort to encourage early and mail-in voting, a tactic they had previously avoided due to Trump’s unfounded claims of voter fraud. Republicans invested heavily in voter registration and get-out-the-vote operations, specifically targeting infrequent voters, a demographic traditionally considered less likely to support the GOP. Data from the Associated Press indicates that over half of all votes were cast before Election Day in 2024, highlighting the success of early voting initiatives.
Andrew Kolvet, a spokesperson for Turning Point Action, a conservative organization that ran a large-scale get-out-the-vote campaign in battleground states, cited Stacey Abrams, a prominent Democratic figure in Georgia, as an inspiration for their efforts. Abrams’ success in mobilizing Black voters and other underrepresented groups in Georgia in previous elections provided a model for Turning Point Action’s strategy. Kolvet noted, “We saw that Trump has this amazing reservoir of low-propensity conservatives who needed a little coaxing. They didn’t think their vote mattered, and their No. 1 pushback was they didn’t understand, really, how to vote.” He further acknowledged the shift in conservative thinking about voter turnout, stating, “Our ideas are more popular,” suggesting a belief that high turnout can now benefit the Republican party.
Looking ahead, the long-term implications of these voter turnout trends remain to be seen. As Kolvet concluded, “It’s going to be up to conservatives to make good on those campaign promises.” The ability of the Republican party to capitalize on this high voter engagement and translate it into sustained political success will depend on future policy decisions and political strategies.
