A couple of weeks ago, we explored whether fantasy football managers could outsmart ESPN when setting their weekly lineups. Today, we’re diving deeper and expanding on that analysis by incorporating Fantasypros Compare expert consensus rankings and Reddit consensus rankings (compiled by u/blackjack30000 from Reddit’s r/fantasyfootball). We also want to give a shout-out to u/eatmoreartichokes for providing half-PPR FantasyPros data, which we’re working on integrating for broader ESPN league comparisons. Our goal is to compare different ranking sources, including FantasyPros compare, ESPN, and Reddit, to determine if one system consistently outperforms the others in guiding fantasy football lineup decisions.
One limitation of our previous analysis was the use of public ESPN leagues, where manager dropout can skew performance data. While dropout doesn’t affect comparisons between ranking systems, it does impact comparisons against the average fantasy manager, whose performance appears artificially worse due to inactive teams. To address this, we’ve implemented a “bad lineup” marker. A lineup is flagged as “bad” if a player projected for 0 ESPN points was started, indicating the manager likely wasn’t paying attention to byes or injuries. For our analysis, we excluded any team with a bad lineup in weekly analysis and teams with two or more bad lineups from season-long analysis to focus on engaged fantasy managers.
We collected full-PPR ESPN league lineups from the 2019 season to align with FantasyPros and Reddit Consensus rankings. After removing “bad lineups,” we analyzed 5722 unique weekly lineups and 1081 unique season-long teams. (It’s noteworthy how many teams were excluded due to bad lineups, highlighting the significant impact of dropout teams on public league data.) For each team, we calculated potential scores based on lineups determined by the actual manager, ESPN projections, FantasyPros compare expert consensus rankings, and Reddit Consensus rankings, alongside the optimal possible lineup score for each week. Because Reddit rankings primarily cover QB, RB, WR, and TE, we focused on lineup slots for these positions. While this might introduce minor inaccuracies (if one ranking source excels at K or DST, for example), we believe the core insights remain valid given the inherent volatility of kicker and defense positions.
Weekly Score Differences: FantasyPros vs. ESPN and Reddit
Let’s first examine weekly performance across these ranking systems. Do they consistently generate higher scores than the average fantasy football manager?
Boxplots illustrating weekly point differences between actual fantasy manager scores and scores achieved using different ranking sources. The red line indicates performance equivalent to the fantasy manager, and black ‘x’ marks denote the mean for each group.
The data reveals that ESPN rankings outperform both average fantasy managers and other ranking sources on a weekly basis. ESPN lineups averaged 3 points more per week than the fantasy manager, although the median remained unchanged. (This mean is lower than the previously reported 6 points, likely due to excluding bad lineups and not including K and DST in this analysis.) This weekly outperformance is superior to FantasyPros compare (mean of -1.7 points, median of 0) and Reddit Consensus (mean of -3.05, median of -0.3). It’s crucial to note that none of these systems achieve optimal lineups, indicating fantasy managers, on average, miss out on a substantial mean of 20 points (median 17.7 points) compared to their potential optimal lineup each week.
Interestingly, ESPN’s rankings surprisingly beat FantasyPros compare, which, by aggregating numerous experts, we initially anticipated to be more accurate. The plot also suggests that a significant portion of fantasy managers closely follow ESPN’s suggestions, given that the median and 25th percentile for ESPN are essentially zero (no difference between manager lineups and ESPN’s suggested lineups). In contrast, FantasyPros compare and Reddit Consensus rankings show a wider distribution of performance relative to manager decisions.
Coaching Efficiency: Evaluating FantasyPros and Other Rankings
Another perspective on ranking system effectiveness is coaching efficiency, which measures how close a lineup’s score is to the optimal score (100% being perfect).
Boxplots of Coaching Efficiency. Black ‘x’ markers represent the mean of each group.
As anticipated, ESPN lineups demonstrate the highest coaching efficiency (mean of 87.8%, median of 86.4%). Fantasy managers are slightly less efficient (mean 85%, median 83%), while FantasyPros compare (mean 80%) and Reddit Consensus rankings (mean 79%) show even lower efficiency. These findings align with the weekly score differences, reinforcing ESPN’s apparent advantage.
Season-Long Wins: Does FantasyPros Compare Lead to More Victories?
While points are important, fantasy football ultimately comes down to wins. Some argued after our last post that focusing solely on points overlooks the ultimate goal: winning matchups. While maximizing points on a player-by-player basis is crucial, and points are controllable, most leagues prioritize wins over total points. Luck inevitably plays a role in weekly wins. If a team isn’t positioned to win, even the highest-scoring ranking system won’t guarantee victory. Therefore, while point analysis is valuable, season wins are the definitive metric of success.
Let’s analyze the differences in season-long wins across these ranking systems:
Boxplots of wins relative to the fantasy manager. The red line represents win parity with the fantasy manager, and black ‘x’ marks are mean values for each group.
Again, ESPN rankings appear to outperform fantasy managers, FantasyPros compare, and Reddit consensus in terms of season wins. Specifically, ESPN lineups averaged 0.2 more wins per season than individual fantasy managers (though the median remains the same). Similar to weekly point differences, this win advantage is smaller than previously reported, likely due to the factors mentioned earlier. Surprisingly, both FantasyPros compare and Reddit Consensus rankings underperform even the average fantasy manager, costing teams approximately 1.7 and 1.8 wins per season, respectively. Furthermore, optimal lineups could have achieved 2.9 more wins than the average manager, assuming opponents didn’t also optimize their lineups.
ESPN vs. FantasyPros Compare and Reddit Consensus: A Fair Comparison?
However, the question remains: is ESPN truly superior to FantasyPros compare and Reddit Consensus? ESPN holds a significant advantage: personalization. ESPN projections are tailored to individual league scoring settings, while FantasyPros compare and Reddit Consensus rankings are generally applicable across leagues. It’s debatable whether ESPN would maintain its win advantage on a level playing field, where all systems account for league-specific scoring. However, in real-world fantasy football, we often don’t operate on a perfectly even playing field. While FantasyPros compare offers an option to import league settings, not all users utilize it, and Reddit rankings lack this feature entirely. This highlights the inherent value of fantasy managers adapting general ranking information to their specific league contexts.
Do Better Managers Rely More on ESPN or FantasyPros Compare?
Finally, let’s examine if manager reliance on ESPN projections correlates with league performance.
Boxplots categorized by league standing, showing how manager lineups compare to ESPN’s suggested lineups. Note the flipped axis compared to previous graphs; the red line represents ESPN’s score, and underperformance relative to ESPN is shown above the red line.
Interestingly, unlike previous findings suggesting lower-finishing players followed ESPN less, this data indicates a similar level of ESPN adherence across all finish positions. Crucially, it doesn’t suggest outperforming ESPN is necessary to finish at the top. In fact, approximately 75% of first-place finishers could have potentially improved their scores by more closely following ESPN projections. While the strength of our previous advice might be nuanced by this updated analysis, the core message persists: leveraging ESPN’s projections and focusing your analytical energy elsewhere can be a sound strategy.
In Conclusion: The Role of FantasyPros Compare and Expert Rankings
While the performance difference is less pronounced than initially reported, ESPN rankings again emerge as a top performer. Even if this advantage is partly due to personalization, ESPN consistently outperforms average fantasy managers, even after accounting for “bad lineups.” Therefore, our recommendation to utilize ESPN projections and concentrate on other aspects of fantasy football strategy remains valid.
However, it’s crucial to emphasize that ESPN is not infallible. ESPN projections still leave an average of 17 points per week on the table, potentially costing a team approximately 2.5 wins over a season. While superior to the average manager, this gap indicates room for improvement beyond relying solely on ESPN. Furthermore, the enjoyment of fantasy football often lies in making lineup decisions. We’re not suggesting removing that element entirely. Outperforming ESPN is certainly achievable, but the average fantasy manager doesn’t consistently do so throughout a season.
Personally, we will continue to incorporate ESPN’s suggestions into our fantasy football approach. Whether you choose to do the same is ultimately your decision.
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