Anti-immigration sentiment is surging across Europe, evidenced by the gains of far-right parties in recent EU elections and their growing popularity in national polls. Parties like Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in Germany are advocating for stricter border controls, appealing to a segment of the population concerned about immigration levels. However, these policies clash starkly with Europe’s looming demographic crisis: a rapidly declining native-born population due to persistently low birth rates.
Demographic experts warn that curtailing immigration will accelerate the aging of European societies, exacerbating economic challenges. A shrinking workforce coupled with an increasing elderly population will strain pension systems, healthcare, and elderly care services. While mainstream politicians acknowledge the necessity of immigration to mitigate these demographic pressures, the far-right’s growing influence challenges this consensus. The long-term economic strength of European nations may hinge on their ability to resist calls for drastic cuts in working-age immigration. Countries that compare favorably in this regard will likely be better positioned for future prosperity.
Eurostat, the EU’s statistical agency, projects a 6% population decrease in the bloc by 2100 based on current migration trends, resulting in a population of 419 million, down from 447 million today. However, when comparing this baseline projection to a scenario excluding immigration, the picture becomes drastically different. Without immigration, Eurostat forecasts a population plunge of over one-third, down to a mere 295 million by 2100. This stark comparison underscores the critical role immigration plays in maintaining Europe’s population size.
These projections highlight a critical juncture for European nations. The Guardian’s analysis of Eurostat data further emphasizes this point by examining scenarios that exclude net migration altogether. Similarly, the UK’s Office for National Statistics includes zero net migration scenarios in its population projections, providing comparable data points. Countries like Italy, France, and Germany, where anti-immigration movements are gaining traction, stand to experience significant population declines in a zero-immigration scenario.
Italy, under Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who has prioritized curbing migration, faces a particularly acute demographic challenge. Despite her tough stance on immigration, Italy’s fertility rate is among the lowest in Europe. A zero-immigration scenario projects Italy’s population to more than halve by the century’s end. Germany, where the anti-immigration AfD is a strong political force, could see its population shrink from 83 million to 53 million over the next 80 years if borders were completely closed. France, witnessing the rise of the National Rally advocating for immigration restrictions, would experience a population decrease from 68 million to 59 million under similar conditions.
Compares Giorgia Meloni’s immigration policies against Italy’s demographic vulnerabilities, highlighting the potential for population decline.
In contrast, a few EU member states, such as Romania, Latvia, and Lithuania, which have experienced net emigration, would see minimal demographic changes from border closures. However, for the majority of Europe, the absence of current immigration levels would not only lead to population shrinkage but also to rapid aging. The proportion of working-age individuals would decrease relative to the elderly, creating significant societal imbalances.
Currently, 21% of the EU population is aged 65 or older. Eurostat’s baseline projections anticipate this proportion rising to 32% by 2100. However, in a zero-immigration scenario, this figure jumps to 36%. Comparing these figures reveals the substantial impact of immigration on mitigating the aging trend and maintaining a younger demographic profile.
Experts studying Europe’s aging population structure emphasize the growing economic strain this demographic shift will impose. Slower economic growth due to a shrinking labor force and increased tax burdens to fund pensions, healthcare, and elderly care are anticipated consequences. Many EU nations are already witnessing this trend, with tax revenues as a percentage of GDP increasing in countries like France, Italy, Germany, and Spain.
The healthcare and social care sectors are poised to become even more critical in an aging Europe. Many EU healthcare systems already rely heavily on immigrant doctors and nurses. Professor Alan Manning from the London School of Economics points out the dual nature of demographic change. While fewer children mean reduced demand for education and childcare, the growing elderly population necessitates a shift in resources towards elderly care. The challenge lies in effectively redistributing resources and workforce to meet these evolving needs.
However, immigration is not presented as a singular solution to Europe’s demographic challenges. Instead, experts advocate for a multi-faceted approach, with immigration playing a crucial role in easing the transition to an older society. John Springford from the Centre for European Reform emphasizes that while increased immigration alone cannot completely solve the problem, it is a vital component. He suggests comparing immigration alongside other potential solutions such as raising employment rates among working-age individuals, increasing the retirement age, pension reforms, and shifting taxation from labor income to wealth and property.
Manning further underscores the importance of immigrant employment. For immigration to be beneficial, immigrants must be integrated into the workforce. Low employment rates among immigrant populations in some European countries pose a challenge. Immigrants who are not employed and require welfare support can exacerbate rather than alleviate economic pressures. Therefore, ensuring immigrant workforce participation is paramount.
Within European nations, rural areas are expected to bear the brunt of population decline. Over the next decades, numerous villages may face the fate of Camini in southern Italy. Camini experienced significant population decline as younger residents migrated for opportunities. However, a refugee resettlement project is revitalizing the village, demonstrating a potential model for addressing population decline in rural areas. This initiative was highlighted in a Council of Europe report by Labour MP Kate Osamor, which examined immigration’s potential to alleviate the challenges of an aging population.
Rosario Zurzolo, president of the cooperative Eurocoop Servizi leading the Camini project, witnessed firsthand the village’s decline. The resettlement of 50 refugees has increased Camini’s population to 350, with an additional 118 refugees temporarily hosted. The reopening of the local school symbolizes the project’s success. Zurzolo believes Camini can serve as a blueprint for revitalizing other European regions facing similar population decline.
Serena Franco, involved in the Camini project, emphasizes the mutual benefits of immigration, stating that refugees bring new knowledge and contribute to growth, innovation, and job creation. These developments would be unattainable without their presence. Camini’s experience Compares favorably to regions resistant to immigration, highlighting the potential for demographic and economic revitalization through inclusive policies.
